Spain’s debt will increase by 23,000 billion Euros until the end of 2012
By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | AUGUST 6, 2012
You are not going crazy. 23,884 billion euros is approximately what Spain’s debt will be in the short term should the country continue to adopt the European banking policies. The reason for this is that the current and soon to come newest austerity and indebtedness measures will prolong the country’s painful crawl towards bankruptcy while inflating the government’s debt to more than 23,000 billion euros. That’s why the actions taken so far by Mariano Rajoy’s led government beg the question about what will be the realistic impact of a financial bailout of the Spanish government, that right now is estimated to be at 300 billion euro. The answer is that any impact will simply get Spain more in debt that it is today.
As it happened in Greece, the negotiation of debt for both the banking system and the Spanish government are just window dressing moves to extend the losses and accumulate power in the hands of the banking elites, to which we are all slaves to, according to the main stream media. The above mentioned debt is the debt that Spain will have to incur into to finance its government for the remaining of 2012. More debt will be added to this in the long term, if the European Banking System decides to rescue Spain, and will turn the obligation impossible to pay.
The more than 23,000 billion is something like the 27.8% of the total amount scheduled for the year. To that amount must be added several billion more in terms of short-term debt — 3 months to 18 months. If things do not change much, long-term debt will be at the highest rate in recent years, according to a statement issued by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi.
Friday, the Treasury debt placed at two, four and 10 years were at interest rates ranging between 4.8% and 6.7%. The Director of Studies of Catalunya Caixa, Ramon Roig, explained that “the rate at which the interest rate has been placed is practically the same as that listed on the secondary market.” So if the Spanish debt in this market rally that began Thursday consolidates (the 10-year bond stood at 7.2%), it will become more expensive for Spain to fund. “It will surely make it more expensive to finance the borrowing, which will complicate our life,” said Miguel Angel Bernal, a professor at IEB.
A total of 1062.1 million of debt was placed Thursday into a two years, 4.8% (the previous was 5.3%), with 1,024.4 million due to four years at 6.1% (in the previous one was at 5,6%) and 1045.8 million to 10 years at 6.7% (previously 6.5%).
According to the Spanish Treasury, last June (latest data available) there were 611,992,000 of outstanding government securities with an average life of 6.2 years. The average cost, according to the same statistics, is 4.1%, one of the lowest in recent years.
The Economy Ministry confirmed that as in previous years, there will be no long-term auction given the holiday period in mid August. So the next test for the State are 21 and 28 of this month, when more debt will be put out. That short-term debt is easier to place with investors, among other reasons, because in a hypothetical situation where the money is taken from creditors, a debt reduction may remain outside, say the analysts. This is what happened, for example, in Greece.
Miguel Angel Bernal warned yesterday that “the key time is October because there are many debt maturities.” According to the Treasury, that month will see the renovation of more than 20,000 million for the long term and some 5,000 million for the short term. In addition to these maturities, the State must finance the deficit generated during the same period. “If you spend more than you take in, as in a family, it becomes a deficit and that deficit needs to be financed, which normally results in more debt,” said Roig.