Even though, historically, Russia has a weighty past with Turkey, and even though it has not forgotten the personal rôle played by current President Erdoğan, to its detriment, during the the first Chechen war, it can not fail to be interested by the possibility of Ankara leaving NATO.
On the other hand, the deep US state, which continues to pursue its imperial ambitions despite the election of Donald Trump, is ready to do whatever it takes to keep Turkey in the Atlantic Alliance.
In order to guarantee his personal survival, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has launched a vast purge of all the pro-US elements in his country — a purge which he must add to the combats in which he is already engaged against Syria, against the PKK, and now also against his ex-mercenaries from Daesh.
The destruction of US influence began with the eradication of Fethullah Gülen’s Hizmet — Gülen is the Islamist preacher who works for the CIA from Pennsylvania. It continues today with the dismissal and often the arrest not only of all the military personnel linked to the United States, but also all secular military personnel in general. You can’t be too careful.
450 of the 600 Turkish senior officers in service at NATO have been called back to Turkey. More than 100 of them, and their families, have requested political asylum in Belgium, headquarters of the Atlantic Alliance.
The first consequence of this anti-secular purge is that the Turkish army will be headless for a long time. In the space of five months, 44% of the generals have been fired, and this, despite the fact that during the Ergenekon scandal, 70% of the senior officers at the time were dismissed, arrested and imprisoned. Deprived of its command structure, operation «Euphrates Shield» is at a standstill.
Erdoğan is therefore obliged to revise his military ambitions downwards for the next few years — in Syria, Iraq and Cyprus — three states he partially occupies. He has therefore let go of East Aleppo (Syria) — but not Idleb — and is preparing to withdraw from Bachiqa (Iraq).
Seen from Washington, a possible exit by Turkey from NATO, or at least from the Integrated Military Command of the Atlantic Alliance, has the imperialist faction of Power in a cold sweat. In terms of numbers, the Turkish army is in fact the second NATO power after the United States. However, a possible exit from the Alliance may be something of a relief for the Donald Trump faction, for whom Turkey is a rudderless country.
This is the source of the neo-conservative «forcing» aimed at bringing Turkey back into the «course of History» (meaning that of the «New American Century»). Thus, the assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, is attempting to offer Cyprus to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — a project she conceived after the elections of November 2015, when President Barack Obama ordered the elimination of the Turkish President.
By blackmailing Cypriot President Níkos Anastasiádis, Mrs. Nuland pressured him to accept her «peace plan» for Cyprus — the island would be reunified and demilitarised (in other words, deprived of its army) — while NATO (in real terms, Turkish troops) — would be deployed. In this way, the Turkish army could complete its conquest of the island without having to fight. In case he should refuse this fool’s bargain, President Anastasiádis could be tried in New York for his implication as a lawyer in the business dealings for Imperium, the company belonging to his Russian friend Leonid Lebedev – a two billion dollar affair.
Thus, the split with NATO would cost Turkey the North-East part of Cyprus, which it currently occupies, while remaining in the Atlantic Alliance would offer it the whole of the island.
Of course, in a few weeks Victoria Nuland should be replaced by the new Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, but the group she represents will probably not lose all its power. Mrs.Nuland is a member of the founding family of the Project for a New American Century, which played a part in the planning of the events of 11 September 2001. Her father-in-law, Donald Kagan of the Hudson Institute, trained the neo-conservatives and the disciples of Leo Strauss in the military history of Sparta. Her brother-in-law, Frederick Kagan, from the American Entreprise Institute, looked after public relations for Generals David Petraeus and John R. Allen. Her sister-in-law, Kimberly Kagan, created the Institute for the Study of War. Her husband, Robert Kagan, is today salaried by the ex-Emir of Qatar at the Brookings Institution. Four personalities, five think-tanks, but a single ideology.
As for Victoria, she was successively ambassador to NATO, spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton, and organiser of the coup d’etat in Kiev in February 2014. She helped Presidents Petro Poroshenko and Erdoğan with the official creation of the «Islamic International Brigade», which organised vast sabotage operations in Russia. Her actions will probably be continued by the US deep state against the Trump administration.
It is the group behind the Kagans which is pursuing the war in Syria, with no other motive than remaining in power. Not only was President Barack Obama incapable of expelling them from his administration, but a personality like Victoria Nuland, who was considered to be a figurehead of the Bush administration, had no difficulty in rising through the ranks of the Democratic administration and organising a wave of Russophobia. While she worked in close collaboration with Hillary Clinton, she never stopped sabotaging the diplomacy of Secretary of State John Kerry, aided and abetted by her friend Jeffrey Feltman, the real commander of UNO.
Knowing Erdoğan’s capacity for sudden changes of strategy, Moscow will either have to soothe the anxieties of Anastasiádis, or propose something more attractive to Ankara in order to keep it midstream between the United States and Russia.