Spain Celebrates the Honour of Being in Debt

June 12, 2012

By JEREMY WARNER | THE TELEGRAPH | JUNE 12, 2012

Only this one may not even succeed in buying time – I give it less than a month before some such other piece of bad news comes along to fire the crisis anew. Like all the others, the latest fix seems to create as many problems as it solves. The euphoria in markets at Spain’s rescue lasted all of a few hours; having bounded away at the opening, they ended broadly flat.

But please don’t call it a bail-out. It may walk, talk and look like a bail-out, but to the Spanish premier, Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s handout is completely different to the three rescues we’ve already seen, even though at €100bn (£81bn)– or some 10pc of Spanish GDP – it’s quite a bit larger than that of Ireland and Portugal.

No doubt mindful of the fact that every political leader who has agreed on a bailout to date has been defenestrated soon afterwards, Mr Rajoy has attempted to snatch victory from the jaws of humiliation by proclaiming the €100bn of aid an unparalleled triumph. Don Quixote himself would have struggled to see such majesty in all too self evident defeat.

To Mr Rajoy, however, the Spanish aid is no more than “the opening of a line of credit for our financial system”, which because Spain has been such an exemplary to others in accepting austerity without complaint, has been offered more or less unconditionally. I suspect Mr Rajoy is in for a bit of a shock once he sees the fine print, but for him, the important thing is getting it across to his electorate that Spain is not being bailed out. Honour has to be seen to be maintained.

Unfortunately, the reality is altogether different. This is not a direct line of credit to the Spanish banking system, but a sovereign loan which expands the national debt by getting on for 20pc. The fact that all of it is going to be used to prop up the banking sector is no more than cosmetic for an underlying truth – that it is Spanish taxpayers who are left with the liability. Spain is being forced to borrow from Europe to bailout its banks because markets won’t provide the money directly to Spain.

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Globalist Larry Summers calls for QE3 as US Drowns in Debt

June 5, 2012

WASHINGTON POST | JUNE 5, 2012

With the past week’s dismal jobs data in the United States, signs of increasing financial strain in Europe and discouraging news from China, the proposition that the global economy is returning to a path of healthy growth looks highly implausible.

It is more likely that negative feedback loops are again taking over as falling incomes lead to falling confidence, which leads to reduced spending and yet further declines in income. Financial strains hurt the real economy, especially in Europe, and reinforce existing strains. And export-dependent emerging markets suffer as the economies of the industrialized world weaken.

The question is not whether the current policy path is acceptable. The question is, what should be done? To come up with a viable solution, consider the remarkable level of interest rates in much of the industrialized world. The U.S. government can borrow in nominal terms at about 0.5 percent for five years, 1.5 percent for 10 years and 2.5 percent for 30 years. Rates are considerably lower in Germany and still lower in Japan.

Even more remarkable are the interest rates on inflation-protected bonds. In real terms, the world is prepared to pay the United States more than 100 basis points to store its money for five years and more than 50 basis points for 10 years. Maturities would have to reach more than 20 years before the interest rates on indexed bonds becomes positive. Again, real rates are even lower in Germany and Japan. Remarkably, the United Kingdom borrowed money last week for 50 years at a real rate of 4 basis points.

These low rates on even long maturities mean that markets are offering the opportunity to lock in low long-term borrowing costs. In the United States, for example, the government could commit to borrowing five-year money in five years at a nominal cost of about 2.5 percent and at a real cost very close to zero.

What does all this say about macroeconomic policy? Many in the United States and Europe are arguing for further quantitative easing to bring down longer-term interest rates. This may be appropriate, given that there is a much greater danger from policy inaction to current economic weakness than to overreacting.

However, one has to wonder how much investment businesses are unwilling to undertake at extraordinarily low interest rates that they would be willing to undertake with rates reduced by yet another 25 or 50 basis points. It is also worth querying the quality of projects that businesses judge unprofitable at a -60 basis point real interest rate but choose to undertake at a still more negative rate. There is also the question of whether extremely low, safe, real interest rates promote bubbles of various kinds.

The renewed emphasis on quantitative easing is also an oddity. The essential aim of such policies is to shorten the debt held by the public or issued by the consolidated public sector, comprising both the government and central bank. Any rational chief financial officer in the private sector would see this as a moment to extend debt maturities and lock in low rates — the opposite of what central banks are doing. In the U.S. Treasury, for example, discussions of debt-management policy have had this emphasis. But the Treasury does not alone control the maturity of debt when the central bank is active in all debt markets.

So, what is to be done? Rather than focusing on lowering already epically low rates, governments that enjoy such low borrowing costs can improve their creditworthiness by borrowing more, not less, and investing in improving their future fiscal position, even assuming no positive demand stimulus effects of a kind likely to materialize with negative real rates. They should accelerate any necessary maintenance projects — issuing debt leaves the state richer not poorer, assuming that maintenance costs rise at or above the general inflation rate.

As my colleague Martin Feldstein has pointed out, this is a principle that applies to accelerating replacement cycles for military supplies. Similarly, government decisions to issue debt, and then buy space that is currently being leased, will improve the government’s financial position as long as the interest rate on debt is less than the ratio of rents to building values — a condition almost certain to be met in a world with government borrowing rates below 2 percent.

These examples are the place to begin because they involve what is in effect an arbitrage, whereby the government uses its credit to deliver essentially the same bundle of services at a lower cost. It would be amazing if there were not many public investment projects with certain equivalent real returns well above zero. Consider a $1 project that yielded even a permanent 4 cents a year in real terms increment to GDP by expanding the economy’s capacity or its ability to innovate. Depending on where it was undertaken, this project would yield at least an extra 1 cent a year in government revenue for each dollar spent. At any real interest rate below 1 percent, the project pays for itself even before taking into account any Keynesian effects.

This logic suggests that countries regarded as havens that can borrow long term at a very low cost should be rushing to take advantage of the opportunity. This is a view that should be shared by those most alarmed about looming debt crises, because the greater your concern about the ability to borrow in the future, the stronger the case for borrowing for the long term today.

There is, of course, still the question of whether more borrowing will increase anxiety about a government’s creditworthiness. It should not, as long as the proceeds of borrowing are used either to reduce future spending or raise future incomes.

Any rational business leader would use a moment like this to term out the firm’s debt. Governments in the industrialized world should do so too.

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Will the Global Political Shakedown be for the best?

May 7, 2012

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | MAY 7, 2012

All around the world there seems to be a wave of people kicking their leaders’ rear ends. The most recent examples of these manifestations of non-conformity with business as usual politics began in Spain, where Mariano Rajoy took over the steering wheel from a failed Jose Luis Zapatero. Then came Greece, who changed its leader George Papandreou for Lucas Papademos.

Over the weekend, elections in France and Germany, carried on the ball as Moamer Khadafi’s friend, Nicolas Zarkozy was unseated as France’s president. He yielded his post to Mr. Francois Hollande. Angela Merkel suffered significant loses in Germany, as her centre-right government coalition lost power in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. By the end of this week, once the counting of the votes is over with, she could also be a victim of what seems to be a generalized european mini-political quake. In Europe, the only nation that seems to have escaped the technocratic attack was Iceland, whose leaders were not totally in the pockets of the bankers who have now taken over Greece.

Meanwhile, in the United States, most of the media has collaborated to pick Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate for president after Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum realized they did not have enough cash to financed their campaigns or pay their debts. Both Santorum and Gingrich are lobbying Romney to take care of those debts in exchange for their vote and support. Most of the gains made by Romney comes from his beauty contest victories obtained during the caucus and primaries, which enabled him to get the highest number of unpledged delegates among his fellow candidates.

Different from the European contests, the American election system is more like a pageant, and the candidate is only elected during a national party meeting. Conventional wisdom would dictate that Romney would be elected as the man to face a decaying Barack Obama in November, and that is what the main stream media and the Republican Party’s machine has tried to do since both Santorum and Gingrich left the race. But in the middle of all the chicanery created to have Romney be the candidate for president, the wave of American discontent seems to be rising. Although many state caucuses and primaries were reported as won by Santorum, Gingrich and Romney himself, the official results in several of those states had not been announced. In the last two weeks, at least five states have changed the outcome of the previously announced results. It turns out that it wasn’t Romney, Santorum or Gingrich who won those states. It was Texas Representative Ron Paul.

Nevada, Washington State, Iowa, Maine and Louisiana are now official Paul’s states. He has also made significant gains in Minnesota and Missouri. So, while the Romney campaign was enjoying the feeling of inevitability, a hard working group of Paul supporters made sure that their votes had the weight they were supposed to have up until the last moment. The Paul campaign has quietly picked up an important number of delegates after Romney was officially ‘elected’ by the GOP to face Obama in November. With his recent gains, Paul is making strides to force a brokered convention in Florida, as supposed to allow Romney to enjoy a victory lap all by himself.

The issue with all the political revolts both in Europe and in the US is whether those revolts against the establishment corporate-backed candidates has rendered or will render anything positive for the people who booted their leaders out of office. In the case of Europe there has been little progress, especially in Greece. After George Papandreu left, the country accepted so-called financial aid from the European Union and adopted a harsh package of government austerity whose only significant result has been the increase in political suicides. Greece is in a worse condition than ever before. The thought that a rich country would eventually be able to pay for its debt in no longer the ephimerous guarantee that it was before. Greece, one of those supposed rich countries is now less capable of paying off his debt than before the sovereign debt problem became apparent. Neither is France, Spain, Portugal or any other European nation. So in the case of the Greek, the change has not been that great. It has been for the worse indeed.

In the case of Spain, things are much different. The government led by Mariano Rajoy has basically continues the same strategy that Zapatero had, which is a powerful government sponsored economy. Since Rajoy took power, the government has not done anything to generate more revenue other than raising taxes. It has also adopted austerity programs in exchange for financial bailouts as it increases government spending in traditional entitlement programs. Spain’s financial health is worse today that it was before, and perhaps it is even worse than Greece. In addition to the gigantic out of control debt, the socialist government continues to borrow money at a very high cost. The unemployment rate has reached 24% which has spurred major economic problems everywhere. Why will Spain be worse than Greece? Because its economy is four times the size of Greece. Economic activity in Spain adds up to just about 12% of the GDP generated in the Eurozone, which makes it the fourth most important in the old continent and number 10 in the world.  A Spanish default will cause a quake that whose ripples will be felt all over the planet. It could even mean the collapse of the Eurozone, analysts say.

France’s economic prospects aren’t that much better. This state of affairs together with Nicolas Sarkozy’s thirst for war cost him his position as president. But will the change be for the best? Has socialism ever worked for the best? The questions is not rhetorical as France’s new leader is a socialist. France lost its AAA rating, if that means anything, while its unemployment continues to rise, even with cooked numbers to over 10%. The country is today in a similar situation than Spain and Italy, drowning in economic insecurity and a growing inability to pay its debt, which is a country’s best presentation card to gain trust and obtain cheap credit. The lousy results of Sarkozy’s window dressing economic and fiscal policies resulted in no growth, to which he responded with more proposals to change the direction of the country. Too little too late, many would say as he lost the election to François Hollande. Mr. Sarkozy wanted to impose a an increase in the value-added tax on consumption, allow companies more flexibility to negotiate working hours and pay, and enshrine a balanced-budget requirement in the Constitution. His intentions did not pick up speed with the French, who found out about his secret dealing with murdered Libyan leader Moamer Khadafi.

Perhaps the only country that looks better is Germany, both financially and politically. But this state of affairs may not last too long. Angela Merkel is also managed to shine panic among the german people. The latest example of her failure to deliver is the loss of support, although small, could begin to shape what the national election will look like in 2013. As Germany seems to be the only European state with a stronger footing, a different issue becomes center stage. As reported by the Express newspaper, German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle is working secretly to create an all powerful European leadership position that will merge the powers of the presidency of the European Council and the European Commission while leaving the United Kingdom out of the group. “This is a plot by people who want to abolish nation states and create a United States of Europe,” said one of the opponents of the secret group. Tory MP Douglas Carswell said that it doesn’t matter how the powers of the Council and the Commission are arranged, so long as the technocrats in control of Europe don’t have the ability to dictate the people’s way of living. “They are not elected so they have no legitimacy.”

With the new Greek Prime Minister mortgaging the future of the country by adopting new but ineffective austerity programs and calling austerity a “patriotic duty” there doesn’t seem to be a way out for the Mediterranean nation that now lays in the hands of its creditors. Spain, on the other hand seems to be walking in Greece’s direction as its leaders begin to adopt similar policies of indebtedness and government spending without generating any real job opportunities for the growing numbers of unemployed — especially those under 25 years of age — who are now called the lost generation. “This is the least hopeful and best educated generation in Spain,”   said local blogger Ignacio Escolar. Unemployment for the young in Spain has reached 52% this Spring.

It all comes down to the US then, doesn’t it? Will Americans start a ‘summer spring’ that will continue the wave of much needed change, or will they continue to foolishly trust their corporate chosen leaders to bring about change instead of kicking them out for good? It was the Americans who fought the British for temporary independence after all, wasn’t it? With a skyrocketing debt of over $16 trillion and a growing unemployment rate — some 100 million Americans are out of the work force today – Americans will have to choose between the two party dictatorship model that has dragged them downthe hole they’re in today, or the better option that will indeed get the ball rolling to bring about real change. A major shakedown in the United States could be the trigger for a worldwide awakening and/or rise of unimpressed people who will clamp down on their governments out of control collusion with corporate interests. Someone needs to light up the match in order for the fire to ignite.

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Europe to Save its Banks, not Greece

February 10, 2012

by Floyd Norris
NYTimes
February 10, 2012

It now appears that Europe is prepared to pay what it needs to pay to save its banks.

But not to rescue Greece.

Once again, there is optimism that a new round of European talks are going to result in an announcement of a Greek bailout. On Thursday, the Greek political parties caved in and agreed to a new austerity package that will satisfy the latest European demands.

When other loose ends are tied up, it appears the Greeks will have given up their principal bargaining chip — the threat that if they are allowed to collapse, they will take the European financial system with them.

If that happens, then at some point down the road, when it turns out that Greece has again fallen short of its deficit reduction targets, Germany will again demand more sacrifices. If the Greeks refuse, then the rest of Europe could be in a position to let Greece go.

It might or might not stay in the euro zone, but a bankrupt Greece would be left to fend for itself, with much of the rest of Europe saying — just as it did two years ago, when Greece’s distress was just becoming clear — that it is a small country of little importance to the rest of Europe.

Perhaps Europe, in its stumbling and sometimes disorganized fashion, will have accomplished a large part of what it set out to do. It will have put a fence around the Greek tragedy and preserved — most of, if not all — the euro zone. As for rescuing Greece, well, you can’t win them all.

The current European attitude was best captured by a document that was circulated as part of the now-abandoned German proposal to force Greece to accept a “budget commissar” to supervise its spending.

“Greece has to legally commit itself to giving absolute priority to future debt service,” said the document, said to have been circulated by German officials. “State revenues are to be used first and foremost for debt service.” Whatever money was left over could be used for other purposes, such as paying police salaries or purchasing hospital supplies.

That was shot down because it sounded so undemocratic and authoritarian, said Whitney Debevoise, a partner in Arnold & Porter with long experience in international bond negotiations. “Plan B is the escrow.”

Escrow does sound like something neutral. But it apparently means the same thing. European aid to Greece would go into an escrow account, to be released as Europe saw fit and withheld if Greece again failed to live up to its promises to cut its budget deficit. But of course the money would be released for debt payments on the restructured bonds. For at least a few years, banks and others that own the new Greek bonds would be assured of collecting their interest payments.

“The euro area will be able to call the bluff of the Greek government,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“Greece says, ‘If we default, all hell breaks loose,’ ” he said. “The reality is that the threat from Greek contagion becomes a lot less credible.”

The escrow system may also persuade more bondholders to go along with the “voluntary” restructuring. Anyone who did not, hoping that the handful of unexchanged bonds would be paid since the cost would not be that great, would run the risk that Europe would release funds to pay debt service on the new bonds, but not on unexchanged old ones.

There have been Greek rescue packages before, followed by new crises. But this could be different.

By the time it becomes clear that Greece cannot meet its new promises, the recapitalization of major European banks may be completed, and in any case they will have no immediate worry of a Greek default. The European Stability Mechanism, the new European bailout fund, will be in place, and perhaps the International Monetary Fund will have raised more capital. The much-talked-about “firewall” could be a reality, preventing contagion.

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Western Big Shots are ‘officially’ $7.6 Trillion in Debt

January 3, 2012

by Keith Jenkins
Bloomberg
January 3, 2012

Governments of the world’s leading economies have more than $7.6 trillion of debt maturing this year, with most facing a rise in borrowing costs.

Led by Japan’s $3 trillion and the U.S.’s $2.8 trillion, the amount coming due for the Group of Seven nations and Brazil, Russia, India and China is up from $7.4 trillion at this time last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ten-year bond yields will be higher by year-end for at least seven of the countries, forecasts show.

Investors may demand higher compensation to lend to countries that struggle to finance increasing debt burdens as the global economy slows, surveys show. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for growth this year to 4 percent from a prior estimate of 4.5 percent as Europe’s debt crisis spreads, the U.S. struggles to reduce a budget deficit exceeding $1 trillion and China’s property market cools.

“The weight of supply may be a concern,” Stuart Thomson, a money manager in Glasgow at Ignis Asset Management Ltd., which oversees $121 billion, said in a Dec. 28 telephone interview. “Rather than the start of the year being the problem, it’s the middle part of the year that becomes the problem. That’s when we see the slowdown in the global economy having its biggest impact.”

Competition for Buyers

The amount needing to be refinanced rises to more than $8 trillion when interest payments are included. Coming after a year in which Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S.’s rating to AA+ from AAA and put 15 European nations on notice for possible downgrades, the competition to find buyers is heating up.

“It is a big number and obviously because many governments are still in a deficit situation the debt continues to accumulate and that’s one of the biggest problems,” Elwin de Groot, an economist at Rabobank Nederland in Utrecht, Netherlands, part of the world’s biggest agricultural lender, said in an interview on Dec. 27.

While most of the world’s biggest debtors had little trouble financing their debt load in 2011, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Sovereign Broad Market Plus Index gaining 6.1 percent, the most since 2008, that may change.

Italy auctioned 7 billion euros ($9.1 billion) of debt on Dec. 29, less than the 8.5 billion euros targeted. With an economy sinking into its fourth recession since 2001, Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government must refinance about $428 billion of securities coming due this year, the third-most, with another $70 billion in interest payments, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Rising Costs

Borrowing costs for G-7 nations will rise as much as 39 percent in 2011, based on forecasts of 10-year government bond yields by economists and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg in separate surveys. China’s 10-year yields may remain little changed, while India’s are projected to fall to 8.02 percent from about 8.39 percent. The survey doesn’t include estimates for Russia and Brazil.

After Italy, France has the most amount of debt coming due, at $367 billion, followed by Germany at $285 billion. Canada has $221 billion, while Brazil has $169 billion, the U.K. has $165 billion, China (PRCH) has $121 billion and India $57 billion. Russia has the least maturing, or $13 billion.

Rising borrowing costs forced Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts from the European Union and IMF. Italy’s 10- year yields exceeded 7 percent last month, a level that preceded the request for aid from those three nations.

Bad Combination

“The buyer base for peripheral Europe has obviously shrunk at the same time that the supply coming to the market is increasing, which is not a good combination,” said Michael Riddell, a London-based fund manager at M&G Investments, which oversees about $323 billion.

The two biggest debtors, Japan and the U.S., have shown little trouble attracting demand.

Japan benefits by having a surplus in its current account, which is the broadest measure of trade and means that the nation doesn’t need to rely on foreign investors to finance its budget deficits. The U.S. benefits from the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency.

Japan’s 10-year bond yields, at less than 1 percent, are the second-lowest in the world, after Switzerland, even though its debt is about twice the size of its economy.

The U.S. attracted $3.04 for each dollar of the $2.135 trillion in notes and bonds sold last year, the most since the government began releasing the data in 1992. The U.S. drew an all-time high bid-to-cover ratio of 9.07 for $30 billion of four-week bills it auctioned on Dec. 20 even though they pay zero percent interest.

Tougher Year

With yields on 10-year Treasuries (USGG10YR) below 2 percent, an increasing number of investors see little chance for U.S. bonds to repeat last year’s gains of 9.79 percent. The U.S pays an average interest rate of about 2.18 percent on its outstanding debt, down from 2.51 percent in 2009, Bloomberg data show.

‘Given how well they have done, we don’t think they’re any longer a very good hedge,” Eric Pellicciaro, head of global rates investment at New York-based BlackRock Inc., which manages $1.14 trillion in fixed-income assets, said in a Dec. 16 telephone interview.

The median estimate of 70 economists and strategists is for Treasury 10-year note yields to rise to 2.60 percent by year-end from 1.94 percent at 10:03 a.m. London time. In Japan, the forecast for the nation’s benchmark note yield is 1.35 percent, while it’s expected to rise to 2.50 percent in Germany, from 1.93 percent today.

Central Banks

Central banks are bolstering demand by either keeping interest rates at record lows or reducing them, and by purchasing bonds through a policy know as quantitative easing.

The Federal Reserve has said it will keep its target rate for overnight loans between banks between zero and 0.25 percent through mid-2013, and is now selling $400 billion of its short- term Treasuries and reinvesting the proceeds into longer-term government debt in a program traders dubbed Operation Twist.

The Bank of Japan has kept its key rate at or below 0.5 percent since 1995, and expanded the asset-purchase program last year to 20 trillion yen ($260 billion). The Bank of England kept its main rate at a record low 0.5 percent last month, and left its asset-buying target at 275 billion pounds ($426 billion).

The European Central Bank reduced its main refinancing rate twice last quarter, to 1 percent from 1.5 percent. It followed those moves by allotting 489 billion euros of three-year loans to euro-region lenders. That exceeded the median estimate of 293 billion euros in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The central bank will offer a second three-year loan on Feb. 28.

‘Flush With Liquidity’

The money from the ECB may be used by banks to buy government bonds, according to Fabrizio Fiorini, the chief investment officer at Aletti Gestielle SGR SpA in Milan.

“The market is now flush with liquidity after measures taken by central banks, particularly the ECB, and that’s great news for risky assets,” Fiorini said in a telephone interview on Dec. 20. “The market will have no problem taking down supply from countries like Spain and Italy in the first quarter. In fact, they should be able to raise money at lower borrowing costs than what we saw in recent months.”

Italy’s sale last week included 2.5 billion euros of 5 percent bond due in March 2022, which yielded 6.98 percent. That was down from 7.56 percent at an auction Nov. 29. It also sold 9 billion euros of bills on Dec. 28 at a rate of 3.251 percent, compared with 6.504 percent at the previous auction on Nov. 25.

‘Phony War’

Investors should be most worried about the period after the ECB’s second three-year longer-term refinancing operation scheduled in February, according to Ignis’s Thomson.

“The amount of liquidity that has been supplied by central banks, with more to come from the ECB in February, suggests the first couple of months will be a sort of phony war as far as the supply is concerned,” Thomson said.

The ECB has bought about 212 billion euros of government bonds since starting a program in May 2010 to contain borrowing costs for Greece, Portugal and Ireland. It began buying Spanish and Italian debt in August, according to people familiar with the trades, who declined to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the transactions.

“There’s a lot of talk that the ECB might have to give more direct support to the governments,” Frances Hudson, who helps manage about $242 billion as a global strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, said in a Dec. 22 telephone interview.

Following is a table of bond and bill redemptions and interest payments in 2012 for the Group of Seven countries, Brazil, China, India and Russia, in dollars, using data calculated by Bloomberg as of Dec. 29:

Country    2012 Bond, Bill Redemptions ($)      Coupon Payments
Japan             3,000 billion                   117 billion
U.S.              2,783 billion                   212 billion
Italy               428 billion                    72 billion
France              367 billion                    54 billion
Germany             285 billion                    45 billion
Canada              221 billion                    14 billion
Brazil              169 billion                    31 billion
U.K.                165 billion                    67 billion
China               121 billion                    41 billion
India                57 billion                    39 billion
Russia               13 billion                     9 billion


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