Europe’s Unemployment Hits a new High

By PAN PYLAS | AP | JULY 2, 2012

Unemployment in the 17-country euro currency bloc hit another record in May as the continent teetered on the edge of recession because of its crippling financial crisis, official figures showed Monday.

Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office, said unemployment rose to 11.1 percent in May from 11 percent the previous month. May’s rate was the highest since the euro was launched in 1999 and adds further urgency to the eurozone countries’ plan to create economic growth and cut excessive government debt.

At a summit last Friday, eurozone leaders agreed a set of short- and long-term measures to shore up the euro and unveiled a limited economic growth package. Markets have responded positively with a stock market rally which, if sustained, should help buoy economic confidence in the eurozone – a key step to easing the crisis.

May’s unemployment rate compares badly with an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent in the United States and only 4.4 percent in Japan, and is expected to rise further in the coming months as the eurozone economy teeters on the edge of recession.

“With the eurozone likely having suffered appreciable GDP contraction in the second quarter and in grave danger of contracting again in the third, and with eurozone business confidence generally low and fragile, the likelihood is that the eurozone unemployment rate will move significantly higher over the coming months,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight.

In total, 17.6 million people were out of work in the eurozone in May, 1.8 million higher than a year earlier.

Unemployment has been edging higher for over a year as concerns over the debt crisis and the future of the euro currency have weighed on economic activity. Businesses have been cutting jobs or delaying hiring as confidence in the economy waned, while many governments have pursued austerity programs, including big job reductions in the public sector.

There are huge disparities across the eurozone, however.

The labor markets of those countries at the front line of the debt crisis, such as Greece and Spain, are suffering most due to their governments’ stringent austerity measures and deep recessions. The highest unemployment rate across the eurozone was recorded in Spain, where 24.6 percent of people were out of work in May. Even more dramatically, 52.1 percent of the country’s youth were unemployed.

Other countries in the eurozone, particularly those in the north, are faring better. Germany’s unemployment rate stood at only 5.6 percent. However, a raft of economic indicators in recent weeks have shown that Europe’s biggest economy is not immune to the problems in the rest of the region. Germany’s exports to other countries in the eurozone are under pressure and business confidence is waning.

Across the wider 27-country European Union, which includes non-euro countries such as Britain and Poland, unemployment edged up to 10.3 percent in May from 10.2 percent the month before.

Anti-Austerity Protests Grow in Europe

By PATRICK DONAHUE | BLOOMBERG | APRIL 30, 2012

A recession in Spain and forecasts of rising unemployment in the 17-nation euro area are amplifying criticism of the German-led austerity agenda in election campaigns this week in France and Greece.

With Spain’s largest unions leading marches involving thousands of protesters in 55 cities yesterday, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government battled to prevent Spain from becoming the next country to seek a bailout. In France, where the presidential-election runoff is set for May 6, Socialist frontrunner Francois Hollande pushed back against German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s focus on deficit reduction.

“Watching Spain now is exactly like watching Ireland around October 2010 before Ireland was forced into its bailout,” Megan Greene, a senior economist at Roubini Global Economics LLC, told Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” on April 27. “The government can’t win no matter what it does.”

Spain’s economy shrank in the first quarter as the nation officially entered its second recession since 2009. Gross domestic product contracted 0.3 percent. Joblessness in the euro area probably to rose to 10.9 percent last month, the highest since 1997, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

As Spanish joblessness reached almost one in four of the working-age population, Hollande demanded that euro-area leaders move to promoting growth from cutting budgets, as agreed by 25 European governments in the so-called fiscal pact. Merkel drew the line at re-opening talks on the fiscal treaty, though she said growth could be boosted with labor-market reform and European Union funding.

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17 Million Unemployed in Euro zone

By ROBIN EMMOTT | REUTERS | APRIL 2, 2012

Unemployment in the euro zone reached its highest level in almost 15 years in February, with more than 17 million people out of work, and economists said they expected job office queues to grow even longer later this year.

Joblessness in the 17-nation currency zone rose to 10.8 percent – in line with a Reuters poll of economists – and 0.1 points worse than in January, Eurostat said on Monday.

“We expect it to go higher, to reach 11 percent by the end of the year,” said Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist at JP Morgan in London. “You have public sector job cuts, income going down, weak consumption. The economic growth outlook is negative and is going to worsen unemployment.”

February’s level – last hit in June 1997 – marked the 10th straight monthly rise and contrasts sharply with the United States where the economy has been adding jobs since late last year.

Economists are divided over the wisdom of European governments’ drive to bring down fiscal deficits so aggressively as economic troubles hit tax revenues, consumers’ spending power and business confidence which collapsed late last year.

Separate data released on Monday showed manufacturing activity in the euro zone shrank for an eighth successive month in March, providing further evidence for Brussels’ forecast that euro zone output will shrink 0.3 percent this year.

Despite the gloomy economic vista, the European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates at 1 percent at its monthly meeting on Wednesday, as rising oil prices keep inflation above its 2 percent target.

“With inflation remaining stubbornly high throughout the euro zone, there is very little hope of a consumer recovery,” said Jennifer McKeown, an economist at Capital Markets.

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Absurd: “Unemployment is good for Economy”

Valerie Jarret, a White House senior adviser kept a straight face while explaining to a crowd  in North Carolina how unemployment welfare checks are good for the economy.

by Daniel Halper
Weekly Standard
February 22, 2012

This evening, speaking at North Carolina Central University in Durham, North Carolina, White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett said that folks getting and spending unemployment checks is a healthy thing . . . because it stimulates the economy.

“Even though we had a terrible economic crisis three years ago, throughout our country many people were suffering before the last three years, particularly in the black community,” Jarrett said. “And so we need to make sure that we continue to support that important safety net. It not only is good for the family, but it’s good for the economy. People who receive that unemployment check go out and spend it and help stimulate the economy, so that’s healthy as well.”

Europe to Save its Banks, not Greece

by Floyd Norris
NYTimes
February 10, 2012

It now appears that Europe is prepared to pay what it needs to pay to save its banks.

But not to rescue Greece.

Once again, there is optimism that a new round of European talks are going to result in an announcement of a Greek bailout. On Thursday, the Greek political parties caved in and agreed to a new austerity package that will satisfy the latest European demands.

When other loose ends are tied up, it appears the Greeks will have given up their principal bargaining chip — the threat that if they are allowed to collapse, they will take the European financial system with them.

If that happens, then at some point down the road, when it turns out that Greece has again fallen short of its deficit reduction targets, Germany will again demand more sacrifices. If the Greeks refuse, then the rest of Europe could be in a position to let Greece go.

It might or might not stay in the euro zone, but a bankrupt Greece would be left to fend for itself, with much of the rest of Europe saying — just as it did two years ago, when Greece’s distress was just becoming clear — that it is a small country of little importance to the rest of Europe.

Perhaps Europe, in its stumbling and sometimes disorganized fashion, will have accomplished a large part of what it set out to do. It will have put a fence around the Greek tragedy and preserved — most of, if not all — the euro zone. As for rescuing Greece, well, you can’t win them all.

The current European attitude was best captured by a document that was circulated as part of the now-abandoned German proposal to force Greece to accept a “budget commissar” to supervise its spending.

“Greece has to legally commit itself to giving absolute priority to future debt service,” said the document, said to have been circulated by German officials. “State revenues are to be used first and foremost for debt service.” Whatever money was left over could be used for other purposes, such as paying police salaries or purchasing hospital supplies.

That was shot down because it sounded so undemocratic and authoritarian, said Whitney Debevoise, a partner in Arnold & Porter with long experience in international bond negotiations. “Plan B is the escrow.”

Escrow does sound like something neutral. But it apparently means the same thing. European aid to Greece would go into an escrow account, to be released as Europe saw fit and withheld if Greece again failed to live up to its promises to cut its budget deficit. But of course the money would be released for debt payments on the restructured bonds. For at least a few years, banks and others that own the new Greek bonds would be assured of collecting their interest payments.

“The euro area will be able to call the bluff of the Greek government,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“Greece says, ‘If we default, all hell breaks loose,’ ” he said. “The reality is that the threat from Greek contagion becomes a lot less credible.”

The escrow system may also persuade more bondholders to go along with the “voluntary” restructuring. Anyone who did not, hoping that the handful of unexchanged bonds would be paid since the cost would not be that great, would run the risk that Europe would release funds to pay debt service on the new bonds, but not on unexchanged old ones.

There have been Greek rescue packages before, followed by new crises. But this could be different.

By the time it becomes clear that Greece cannot meet its new promises, the recapitalization of major European banks may be completed, and in any case they will have no immediate worry of a Greek default. The European Stability Mechanism, the new European bailout fund, will be in place, and perhaps the International Monetary Fund will have raised more capital. The much-talked-about “firewall” could be a reality, preventing contagion.

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