Os Quatro Cavaleiros do Sistema Bancário Mundial

May 27, 2011

Se tiver dificuldade em entender o que é a Nova Ordem Mundial -é realmente o antigo ordem mundial-, e quem o compõe, este é o artigo de esclarecimento.

Por Dean Henderson
Tradução de Luis R. Miranda
27 maio 2011

Se você quer saber onde está o centro de poder real no mundo, siga o dinheiro – cui bono. Segundo a revista Global Finance, a partir de 2010 os bancos mais poderosos estão nas fortalezas de Rothschild no Reino Unido e França.

Eles são o francês BNP (US $ 3 trilhões em ativos), Royal Bank of Scotland (US $ 2,7 trilhões em ativos), o HSBC Holdings baseado no Reino Unido (US $ 2,4 trilhão em ativos ), Credit Agricole França (US $ 2,2 trilhões de dólares em ativos) e o britânico Barclays (US $ 2,2 trilhões em ativos).

Em EUA, uma combinação de desregulação e mania por fusões bancárias deixou quatro mega-bancos como a cabeça do sistema financeiro. Segundo a Global Finance, a partir de 2010 estão o Bank of America (US $ 2,2 trilhões de dólares), JP Morgan Chase (US $ 2 trilhões de dólares), Citigroup (US $ 1,9 trilhão) e Wells Fargo (US $ 1,25 trilhões). Chamei estes os Quatro Cavaleiros do Setor Bancário dos EUA. A consolidação do poder e do dinheiro.

Em setembro de 2000, o casamento que criou o JP Morgan Chase, foi a maior concentração em um frenesi de consolidação bancária que ocorreu na década de 1990. A mania das concentrações foi impulsionada pela desregulamentação do setor bancário como a revogação da Lei Glass Steagall de 1933, que foi promulgada depois da Grande Depressão para conter monopólios bancários que causaram a quebra da Bolsa em 1929 e que precipitou a Grande Depressão.

Em julho de 1929, a Goldman Sachs lançou dois fundos de investimento chamados Shenandoah e Blue Ridge. Nos meses de agosto e setembro desse ano, os bancos promoveram esses fundos e venderam ações ao público por centenas de milhões de dólares em por meio de Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation por 104 dólares por ação. Os investidores de Goldman Sachs foram resgatados no mercado de ações. No outono de 1934 as ações valiam 1,75 dólares cada. Um diretor de Shenandoah e Blue Ridge e Sullivan & Cromwell foi o advogado John Foster Dulles. [1]

John Merrill, fundador do Merrill Lynch, saiu do mercado de ações em 1928, como fizeram os investidores no Lehman Brothers. O presidente do Chase Manhattan, Alfred Wiggin tinha um “pressentimento” e formou o Sherman Corporation em 1929, para atacar as ações de sua própria empresa. Na sequência da crise de 1929, o presidente do Citibank, Charles Mitchell, foi preso por sonegação de impostos. [2]

Em fevereiro de 1995, o presidente Bill Clinton anunciou planos para eliminar o Glass Steagall e o Bank Holding Company Act de 1956 – que proibiu os bancos de serem proprietários de empresas de seguros e outras instituições financeiras. Naquele dia, o traficante de ópio e escravos, Barings faliu após que um dos seus operadores com base em Cingapura chamado Nicholas Gleason foi pego no lado errado de bilhões de dólares em operações com derivativos. [3]

A advertência foi ignorada. Em 1991, os contribuintes dos EUA, que tiveram que pagar mais de 500 bilhões de dólares para o S & L, foram forcados a pagar mais 70 bilhões de dólares para socorrer o FDIC, e logo pagaram o custo do resgate secreto de dois anos e meio no Citibank, que estava à beira do colapso após a crise da dívida na América Latina. Com as contas já pagas pelos contribuintes dos EUA a desregulamentação bancária foi dada como certa, o palco estava armado para um grande número de fusões de bancos como o mundo jamais tinha visto.

O secretário do Tesouro, Reagan, George Gould disse que a fusão dos bancos -em cinco a dez gigantes corporacoes- era necessário para a economia dos EUA. A visão de Gould estava prestes a se tornar realidade.

Em 1992, o Bank of America comprou o seu maior rival na costa ocidental, Security Pacific, e depois engoliu o Continental Bank de Illinois. Bank of America adquiriu mais tarde uma margem de 34% do Black Rock Bank (Barclays detém 20% do Black Rock) e uma participação de 11% no China Construction Bank, tornando-o a segundo maior instituição bancária do país, com ativos de 214 bilhões de dólares. Citibank tinha 249 bilhões de dólares. [4]

Ambos os bancos aumentaram os seus ativos para cerca de 2 trilhões de dólares cada.

Em 1993, o Chemical Bank assumiu o Texas Commerce Bank para se tornar o terceiro maior banco comercial, com 170 bilhões de dólares em ativos. Chemical Bank foi fundido com Manufacturers Hanover Trust, em 1990.

O North Carolina National Bank se uniu com C & S Sovran para formar o Nations Bank, que se tornou o quarto maior banco dos EUA com 169 bilhões de dólares em seus cofres. Fleet Norstar comprou o Banco de Nova Inglaterra, enquanto o Northwest comprou o Bancos Unidos de Colorado.

Durante este período os ativos bancários dessas empresas quebraram recordes a cada trimestre. O ano de 1995 quebrou todos os recordes anteriores devido as fusões bancárias. Negócios entre os bancos ‘produziram’ um total de 389 bilhões de dólares. [5]

Os cinco grandes bancos de investimento, que tinham acabado de ganhar uma tonelada de dinheiro dirigindo negociações da dívida na América Latina, aumentaram os seus lucros através da lista interminável de fusões entre 1980 e 1990.

De acordo com Standard & Poor’s, os bancos de investimento mais poderosos eram Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Salomon Smith Barney e Lehman Brothers. Um acordo que fracassou em 1995, foi uma fusão entre o grande banco de investimento em Londres, SG Warburg e Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Warburg escolheu Union Bank of Switzerland como seu pretendente em seu lugar, e então veio UBS Warburg como a sexta força em bancos de investimento.

Depois do frenesi de 1995, os bancos agressivamente saíram para o Oriente Médio, e estabeleceram operações em Tel Aviv, Beirute e Bahrein, onde a frota de bancos dos EUA foi instalada. As privatizações do Banco de Egito, Marrocos, Tunísia e Israel abriu as portas a mega-bancos nessas nações. Chase e Citibank emprestaram dinheiro a Royal Dutch Shell e Saudi Petrochemical, enquanto o JP Morgan trabalhou com o consórcio Qatargas liderado pela Exxon Mobil. [6]

A indústria de seguros também tinha a mania de fusões. Em 1995, o Travelers Group tinha comprado Aetna e, Berkshire Hathaway, uma empresa de Warren Buffet, tinha absorvido Geico, Zurique Insurance tinha absorvido Kemper Corporation, CNA Financial comprou Continental Companies e General Re Corporation afundou seus dentes em Colonia Konzern AG.

No final de 1998, o gigante Citibank fundiu-se com o Travelers Group criando o Citigroup, um gigante de US $ 700 bilhões, que ostentava mais de 163.000 funcionários em 100 países, incluindo empresas Salomon Smith Barney (uma joint venture com o Morgan Stanley), Commercial Credit, Primerica Financial Services, Shearson Lehman Brothers, o Barclays America, a Aetna e Segurities Pacific Financial. [7]

Nesse mesmo ano, Bankers Trust e US Investment Bank Alex Brown foi adquirida pelo Deutsche Bank, que também tinha comprado Morgan Grenfell em Londres, em 1989. A compra pelo Deutsche Bank, fez com que o Deutsche Bank fosse o maior banco do mundo naquela época com um capital de 882.000 bilhões de dólares. Em janeiro de 2002, a japonesa Mitsubishi e Sumitomo Operations foram combinadas para criar Sumitomo Mitsubishi Bank, que superou o Deutsche Bank, com ativos de 905 bilhões de dólares. [8]

Em 2004, o HSBC se tornou o segundo maior banco do mundo. Seis anos depois, os três gigantes tinham sido eclipsados pelo BNP e Royal Bank of Scotland.

Em EUA, o pesadelo de George Gould chegou a seu ponto mais alto na hora certa para o novo milênio, quando o Banco Chase Manhattan, absorviu o Chemical Bank. Bechtel Banker Wells Fargo comprou o Norwest Bank, enquanto o Bank of America assumiu Nations Bank. O golpe final veio quando a reunificação da Casa de Morgan anunciou que iria fundir-se com o Chase Manhattan Bank/Chemical Bank/Manufacturers Hanover.

Quatro bancos gigantes surgem a reinar no mercado financeiro dos EUA. JP Morgan Chase e Citigroup foram os reis do capital da Costa Leste. Juntos, esses dois bancos controlaram 52,86% da Reserva Federal de Nova Iorque [9], enquanto o Bank of America e Wells Fargo prevaleceram na Costa Oeste.

Durante a crise bancária de 2008, essas empresas ainda cresceram mais, recebendo quase US $ 1 trilhão, cortesia da administração Bush e o secretário do Tesouro e ex-Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulsen, enquanto calmamente compravam ativos por centavos de dólar.

Barclays assumiu o Lehman Brothers. JP Morgan Chase engoliu o Bear Stearns e o Washington Mutual. Bank of America agarrou o Merrill Lynch e Countrywide. Wells Fargo teve o quinto maior banco do país, a Wachovia.

Os mesmos bancos controlados pelas mesmas oito famílias que durante décadas galoparam, seus Quatro Cavaleiros do petróleo pelo Golfo Pérsico são mais poderosos do que em qualquer outro momento na história. Eles são os Quatro Cavaleiros do Sistema Bancário Mundial.

[1] The Great Crash of 1929. John Kenneth Galbraith. Houghton, Mifflin Company. Boston. 1979. p.148

[2] Ibid

[3] Evening Edition. National Public Radio. 2-27-95

[4] “Bank of America will Purchase Chicago Bank”. The Register-Guard. Eugene, OR. 1-29-94

[5] “Big-time Bankers Profit from M&A Fever”. Knight-Ridder News Service. 12-30-95

[6] “US Banks find New Opportunities in the Middle East”. Amy Dockser Marcus. Wall Street Journal. 10-12-95

[7] “Making a Money Machine”. Daniel Kadlec. Time. 4-20-98. p.44

[8] BBC World News. 1-20-02

[9] Rule by Secrecy: The Hidden History that Connects the Trilateral Commission, the Freemasons and the Great Pyramids”. Jim Marrs. HarperCollins Publishers. New York. 2000. p.74

Filed under World Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

World Growing Independent of U.S. Economy

October 4, 2010

Bloomberg

Wall Street economists are reviving a bet that the global economy will withstand the U.S. slowdown.

Just three years since America began dragging the world into its deepest recession in seven decades, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research are forecasting that this time will be different. Goldman Sachs predicts worldwide growth will slow 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent in 2011, even as expansion in the U.S. falls to 1.8 percent from 2.6 percent.

Underpinning their analysis is the view that international reliance on U.S. trade has diminished and is too small to spread the lingering effects of America’s housing bust. Providing the U.S. pain doesn’t roil financial markets as it did in the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs expects a weakening dollar, higher bond yields outside the U.S. and stronger emerging-market equities.

“So long as it doesn’t turn to flu, the world can withstand a cold from the U.S.,” Ethan Harris, head of developed-markets economic research in New York at BofA Merrill Lynch, said in a telephone interview. He predicts the U.S. will expand 1.8 percent next year, compared with 3.9 percent globally.

That may provide comfort for some of the central bankers and finance ministers from 187 nations flocking to Washington for annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank on Oct. 8-10. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard last month predicted “positive but low growth in advanced countries,” while developing nations expand at a “very high” rate. He will release revised forecasts on Oct. 6.

‘Partially Decoupled’

“The world has already become partially decoupled,” Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at New York’s Columbia University, said in a Sept. 20 interview in Zurich. He will speak at an IMF event this week.

Sixteen months after the world’s largest economy emerged from recession, the U.S. recovery is losing momentum, with declining factory orders, a slowdown in pending home sales and rising unemployment, according to the median forecasts of economists in Bloomberg News surveys taken ahead of reports this week. Their predictions don’t include another contraction, with growth estimated at 2.7 percent this year.

Emerging markets are showing more strength. Manufacturing in China accelerated for a second consecutive month in September, and industrial production in India jumped 13.8 percent in July from a year earlier, more than twice the June pace.

Emerging-Markets ‘Outperformance’

“It seems that recent economic data help to confirm the story of emerging-markets outperformance,” said David Lubin, chief economist for emerging markets at Citigroup Inc. in London.

The gap in growth rates between the developing and advanced worlds is widening, he said. Emerging economies will account for about 60 percent of global expansion this year and next, up from about 25 percent a decade ago, according to his estimates.

The main reason for the divergence: “Direct transmission from a U.S. slowdown to other economies through exports is just not large enough to spread a U.S. demand problem globally,” Goldman Sachs economists Dominic Wilson and Stacy Carlson wrote in a Sept. 22 report entitled “If the U.S. sneezes…”

Take the so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. While exports account for almost 20 percent of their gross domestic product, sales to the U.S. compose less than 5 percent of GDP, according to their estimates. That means even if U.S. growth slowed 2 percent, the drag on these four countries would be about 0.1 percentage point, the economists reckon. Developed economies including the U.K., Germany and Japan also have limited exposure, they said.

Room to Grow

Economies outside the U.S. have room to grow that the U.S. doesn’t, partly because of its outsized slump in house prices, Wilson and Carlson said. The drop of almost 35 percent is more than twice as large as the worst declines in the rest of the Group of 10 industrial nations, they found.

The risk to the decoupling wager is a repeat of 2008, when the U.S. property bubble burst and then morphed into a global credit and banking shock that ricocheted around the world. For now, Goldman Sachs’s index of U.S. financial conditions signals that bond and stock markets aren’t stressed by the U.S. outlook.

The break with the U.S. will be reflected in a weaker dollar, with the Chinese yuan appreciating to 6.49 per dollar in a year from 6.685 on Oct. 1, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts.

Lower Yields

The bank is also betting that yields on U.S. 10-year debt will be lower by June than equivalent yields for Germany, the U.K., Canada, Australia and Norway. U.S. notes will rise to 2.8 percent from 2.52 percent, Germany’s will increase to 3 percent from 2.3 percent and Canada’s will grow to 3.8 percent from 2.76 percent on Oct. 1, Goldman Sachs projects.

Goldman Sachs isn’t alone in making the case for decoupling. Harris at BofA Merrill Lynch said he didn’t buy the argument prior to the financial crisis. Now he believes global growth is strong enough to offer a “handkerchief” to the U.S. as it suffers a “growth recession” of weak expansion and rising unemployment, he said.

Giving him confidence is his calculation that the U.S. share of global GDP has shrunk to about 24 percent from 31 percent in 2000. He also notes that, unlike the U.S., many countries avoided asset bubbles, kept their banking systems sound and improved their trade and budget positions.

Economic Locomotives

A book published last week by the World Bank backs him up. “The Day After Tomorrow” concludes that developing nations aren’t only decoupling, they also are undergoing a “switchover” that will make them such locomotives for the world economy, they can help rescue advanced nations. Among the reasons for the revolution are greater trade between emerging markets, the rise of the middle class and higher commodity prices, the book said.

Investors are signaling they agree. The U.S. has fallen behind Brazil, China and India as the preferred place to invest, according to a quarterly survey conducted last month of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who subscribe to Bloomberg. Emerging markets also attracted more money from share offerings than industrialized nations last quarter for the first time in at least a decade, Bloomberg data show.

Indonesia, India, China and Poland are the developing economies least vulnerable to a U.S. slowdown, according to a Sept. 14 study based on trade ties by HSBC Holdings Plc economists. China, Russia and Brazil also are among nations with more room than industrial countries to ease policies if a U.S. slowdown does weigh on their growth, according to a policy- flexibility index designed by the economists, who include New York-based Pablo Goldberg.

‘Act Countercyclically’

“Emerging economies kept their powder relatively dry, and are, for the most part, in a position where they could act countercyclically if needed,” the HSBC group said.

Links to developing countries are helping insulate some companies against U.S. weakness. Swiss watch manufacturer Swatch Group AG and tire maker Nokian Renkaat of Finland are among the European businesses that should benefit from trade with nations such as Russia and China where consumer demand is growing, according to BlackRock Inc. portfolio manager Alister Hibbert.

“There’s a lot of life in the global economy,” Hibbert, said at a Sept. 8 presentation to reporters in London.

Asset Bubbles

The increasing focus on emerging markets may present challenges for their policy makers as the flow of money into their economies risks fanning inflation, asset bubbles and currency appreciation. Countries from South Korea to Thailand have already intervened to weaken their currencies, along with taking steps to restrict capital inflows.

Stephen Roach, nonexecutive Asia chairman for Morgan Stanley, remains skeptical of decoupling. He links the optimism to a snapback in global trade from a record 11 percent slide in 2009. As that fades amid sluggish demand from advanced economies, emerging markets that rely on exports for strength will “face renewed and formidable headwinds,” he said.

“Decoupling is still a dream in much of the developing world,” said Roach, who also teaches at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut.

The Goldman Sachs economists argue history is on their side. The U.K., Australia and Canada all continued growing amid the U.S. recession of 2001 as the technology-stock bust passed them by, while America’s 2006-2007 housing slowdown inflicted little pain outside its borders, they said. The shift came when the latter morphed into a financial crisis, prompting Goldman Sachs to declare in December 2007 that 2008 would be the “year of recoupling.”

The argument finds favor with Neal Soss, New York-based chief economist at Credit Suisse. While the supply of dollars and letters of credit that fuel international commerce dried up during the turmoil, that isn’t a problem now, so the rest of the world can cope with a weaker U.S., he said.

“Decoupling was a good idea then and is a good idea now,” Soss said.

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