As the Euro zone Drowns, Countries prepare for Deeper Depression

Even the best banker forecasts warn about an imminent economic Depression

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | AUGUST 15, 2012

The latest outlook issued by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide a clear picture that shows how the euro area will fall into an economic depression. The question then is, how will the countries deal with the Depression and whether the banks will be more powerful or have collapsed too.

The risk of recession in the eurozone, after the economy of the region shrank by two tenths of a percent between April and June, threatens to slow the progression of the only growing component of the Spanish economy, that is the export of goods to the rest of the Euro nations. Today, more than half of Spain’s exports are sold in the Euro zone, but the threat of a deeper depression may affect what those nations buy from Spain in the coming months.

According to recent data published by the European statistical office (Eurostat), both the EU and the eurozone, whose member countries are major importers of goods manufactured by Spain, saw its economy falls 0.2% in the second quarter of the year.

The calculations of the European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate that the recession will get worse in the euro area, as both agencies forecast a contraction of between 0.1% and 0.3 %, for the rest of 2012.

In the second quarter of 2012, the Spanish economy contracted 0.4%, according to the data advanced by the National Statistics Institute (INE), a fall that was not toned down by the positive contribution of the exports sector.

The latest data from the Spanish trade balance reflects an export growth of 3% until May, mainly by increased sales to emerging countries, although these markets still account for only a small part compared to Spanish business partners in Europe.

In fact, the primary client is still the European Union, which purchases 65% of Spanish exports, although sales to Spanish business partners remained stagnant in the first five months of the year. The euro zone receives more than half of Spanish goods, that is why the slow down of 1.1% in sales to these countries during the first five months of the year following the crisis have raised awareness about the difficult times ahead.

The economic developments in the euro countries has been mixed, with Germany so far resisting the crisis and, according to government numbers, growing by 0.3% in the second quarter, while France has not completely collapsed, but is experiencing a crippled economy. Both countries are major markets for Spain, with France buying some 17.4% of Spanish exports and Germany, the second most important partner getting 10.8%.

The best selling goods to these countries belong to sectors such as industrial technology and mechanical auxiliary industry and construction, chemicals, horticultural and fashion.

However, while the Germany has continued to increase the purchase of Spanish goods (6.5%), France has begun to cut its imports, which has resulted in a fall of 0.4% in sales to the neighboring country.

In the case of Germany it is important to mention the fact that the country is a major commercial creditor of Spain, although in the first five months the trade deficit has been shortened in half with Angela Merkel’s country. This has been the result of Spain not importing as many goods from Germany as it did previous to the crisis, for example.

The balance both the euro area and with the twenty seven EU countries is positive, since in both cases Spain sells more than it buys. However, the Spanish foreign balance with the rest of the world is in deficit, which is due to high energy costs arising from oil imports mainly, but also gas, coal and electricity.

The main creditors of Spain as far as energy is concerned are Russia and Nigeria, while the third is China, a country which buys mainly textiles from the Spanish manufacturing industry.

Meanwhile, Greece is trying to meet its commitments to investors. August 20 represented a key date, as it marked the date when the country had to pay off the  debt of 3,200 million euros in the hands of the European Central Bank. The mathematical impossibility to pay such debt, as it was explained in previous articles, obligated Greece to issue even more debt to finance the money owed to the ECB. With this, this country will continue the well known death cycle which in most cases concludes with the complete collapse of debtor nations.

Greece has now placed 4.063 million euros in treasury bills with maturities of three months at an interest rate of 4.43%, slightly above the 4.28% offered in July, as reported by the Greek Authority Management Public Debt (PDMA). The Greek government attempts to achieve a deferral of repayment of that debt or an advance of a new loan of 31,000 million from the second rescue package, which has been rejected by their European partners.

The disbursement of bailout money will be transferred only once the troika submits its report on the progress of the country and gives the approval for the new cuts for 2013 and 2014. Most buyers of the monthly auctions are Greek state banks themselves, which means that the entire financial system is in a downhill fall of self-financing in which the government issues securities to finance the maturities of bonds held by banks in the country, which, in turn, buy debt from the State to use it as proof of liquidity. Do you see the insanity here?

Spain admits the need for a Rescue of 300 billion

By LUIS MIRANDA | THE REAL AGENDA | JULY 30, 2012

The Spanish Minister of Economy and Competitiveness, Luis de Guindos announced last week to its German counterpart that Spain will most likely need an extra 300 billion Euros in what will constitute the most feared but long time coming financial rescue of the Spanish economy. Mr. Guindos explained that the new bailout will be added to the 100 billion approved for the banks just a few weeks ago, when Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy denied that Spain would need any further aid in order to keep its economy above water. At that time, Rajoy also denied that Spain was in a critical situation and that the country had one of the strongest economies of the euro region.

Even after Mr. Guindos announced that he had held talks with his German counterpart, Mariano Rajoy denied that Spain had even mentioned such a thing during the talks. Apparently, Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble said that his country would not consider a financial rescue until the European Stability Mechanism wasn’t fully in place. Spain’s request for rescue comes at a time when the country is finding it too difficult to keep up with its funding costs, which become increasingly unsustainable.

The Minister of Economy and Competitiveness discussed this possibility in his meeting in Berlin with his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schaeuble, last Tuesday, when the interest of ten-year Spanish bond exceeded 7.6%. According to the source, if this money is needed, it is because it is necessary to strengthen the Spanish economy as a whole while the banking sector is also made more solvent, say Spanish government officials.

“Guindos spoke about 300,000 million in aid, but Germany was not comfortable with the idea of ​​a bailout now,” said a Spanish source. “Once you see what are the operating costs of borrowing for Spain, perhaps we will return to this issue,” he added. Asked about this information, a Spanish government spokesman denied “categorically” any such plan. “The possibility of a rescue of 300,000 million euros for Spain has not been provided and has not been discussed,” he added.

Meanwhile, a second official source of the euro zone, said that Spain could avoid the rescue, but added that there have been miscommunications that have worried investors. “In pure arithmetic terms, if interest rates are consistent with what I consider a sustainable situation we won’t need it,” he said when asked if Spain needs the full rescue.

Commission approves 18 billion in aid for four Greek banks

The European Commission approved on Friday approved a temporary assistance of 18 billion euros to recapitalize four Greek banks. They are Alpha Bank, EFG Eurobank, Piraeus Bank and National Bank. The four banks in question account for about three quarters of the Greek banking sector and the news rescue is given  in order to ensure financial stability, said the official communique.

In parallel, the EU executive has opened a detailed investigation on this injection of capital to determine whether it conforms to EU rules on aid banks. “The participation of these banks in the exchange of Greek government bonds (which imposed substantial losses) and the deep recession has weakened their capital.

The recapitalization fund bridge across the Hellenic financial stability ensures the stability of the Greek banking system” has said Vice President of the Commission responsible for Competition, Joaquin Almunia in a statement.

The four banks now play an important role in financing the real economy, as highlighted by Brussels. “The opening of a thorough investigation is common for large amounts of public support through atypical instruments” and “we do not prejudge the outcome of the investigation,” said the Commission.
In addition, the EU executive has authorized a temporary aid of 1,700 million euros for the liquidation of Proton Bank and its transformation into a new entity, Nea Proton Bank. Also in this case, the EU has opened a detailed investigation on doubts about the viability of the bank’s long-term existence without subsidies and whether this is the least costly way to address its problems.

Spain’s Unemployment surpasses 24 percent

CNBC | JULY 27, 2012

Spanish unemployment hit its highest level in the second quarter since the country’s return to democracy in the mid-1970s, as firms shed more staff, driven by fears of prolonged recession and a crisis of confidence among consumers.

The jobless rate rose to 24.6 percent from 24.4 percent in the first quarter, the National Statistics Institute said on Friday, below a Reuters forecast of 24.9 percent. The number of unemployed Spaniards rose to 5.7 million.

“It’s another example of in, and with the economy unlikely to expand anytime soon, and the dire position the economy is probably more likely to fall deeper into recession, things are only going to get worse,” economist at Capital Economics Ben May said.

The headline figure was the highest since current records began in 1976, the year after Spain’s dictatorship ended with the death of Francisco Franco.

Spain’s economy has stagnated or been in recession since the beginning of 2008 after the labor-heavy property sector stalled as a glut of cheap credit dried up.

The latest recession, which began in the first quarter, is expected to last into next year while the government said last week it does not expect unemployment to fall much below 22 percent until 2015 at least.

Consumer and business confidence has been badly dented by concerns that Spain may need a full sovereign bailout as nervous markets push the country’s risk premiums to euro-era highs.

Almost a third of all those unemployed in the euro zone are in Spain, with young people the worst hit. According to figures from EU statistics agency Eurostat, half of the country’s people under 26 and available for work are unemployed.

Spain’s Economy Slows Further and Runs out of Options, says Central Bank

REUTERS | JULY 24, 2012

Spain’s economy sank deeper into recession in the second quarter, its central bank said on Monday, as investors spooked by a funding crisis in its regions pushed the country ever closer to a full bailout.

Economic output shrank by 0.4 percent in the three months from April to June having slumped by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the Bank of Spain said in its monthly report.

Economy Minister Luis de Guindos ruled out a full-scale financial rescue on top of the 100 billion euros already earmarked for the country’s banks, but Spain’s sovereign bond yields stayed mired in the danger zone.

In contrast to de Guindos, who told lawmakers there was little else Spain could do to ease the tensions after launching a 65-billion-euro austerity package last week, the central bank’s deputy governor said more belt-tightening was needed.

“(Current market tensions) reflect problems in Spain as well as the euro zone,” Fernando Restoy said after a conference in Madrid.

“We need to continue further along the same line. We need more cuts, more reforms which will restore market confidence and mechanisms which will strengthen the monetary union.”

Earlier, media reports suggested half a dozen regional authorities were ready to follow Valencia in seeking financial support from Madrid.

Prohibitively high refinancing costs have virtually shut all of the 17 regional governments out of international debt markets, forcing the worst hit to seek loans from the central government to meet bond redemptions.

Spain’s sovereign debt yields rose above 7.5 percent on 10-year paper on Monday, well above the 7 percent level that triggered the spiral in borrowing costs that led to bailouts for other euro zone states.

GERMANY STIRS

In a sign of a growing awareness among the euro zone’s heavy hitters of the need to protect Spain, Economy Minister De Guindos will travel to Berlin on Tuesday to meet with his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble.

“We believe that the reforms already begun by Spain will help calm the markets,” Schaeuble’s spokeswoman Marianne Kothe said in Berlin, adding that the regions’ funding problems had “nothing to do with” the European rescue deal for the country’s banks.

Germany knew of no plans for a broader Spanish bailout request, she said.

Asked about that option on the sidelines of a parliamentary hearing on the bank aid, De Guindos said: “Absolutely not.”

The mounting unease was reflected in financial markets.

Spanish two-year bond yields were up almost 90 basis points at 6.64 percent and the cost of insuring Spanish debt against default rose to a record high.

With the blue-chip stock market index Ibex hitting its lowest level since 2003, Spain reintroduced a temporary ban on short selling on Monday to discourage speculative trading.

But the ban, matching a restriction imposed on Monday in Italy, stoked fears that Spain’s sovereign debt and banking crisis may be more widespread than expected, sending European shares to new intraday lows. They later recovered in Spain and Madrid stock market fell 1.1 percent on the day.

Spain slipped into recession for the second time since 2009 in the first quarter of this year, its economy crippled by a bank sector weighed down by soured assets from a collapsed property bubble and unemployment rates that have risen close to 25 percent.

The government said on Friday it expected the economy to continue to shrink well into next year, fuelling market and massive protests.

For the 12th day running, government employees demonstrated against the cuts programme in the main cities of the country on Monday, blocking roads and stopping traffic.

TIME FOR THE ECB?

In his comments to parliament, de Guindos hinted the European Central Bank – hitherto unwilling to relaunch stalled stimulus programmes that might offer relief to Spain and other states at the sharp end of the euro zone debt crisis – should now step in.

Asked whether ECB intervention was needed, De Guindos said: “I repeat that in this situation of uncertainty and excessive volatility… the only way to act goes well beyond the capacity of governments.”

There was however little sign that the Frankfurt-based institution would move any time soon and Ireland’s Prime Minister Enda Kenny warned the Spanish situation was getting very serious.

“They’re effectively locked out of the long term markets. Obviously it’s an economy with huge figures and from that point of view it’s one of a number of countries now which face very challenging positions,” Kenny told national broadcaster RTE.

Meanwhile, Spain’s central bank said an accelerated programme of structural reforms could offset the impact of the deep austerity programme, aimed at shrinking one of the highest public deficits in the euro zone.

It called for great sector liberalisation to improve competitiveness, the reduction of administrative red tape and the improvement of transparency in good and services markets.

“This should offset the negative short-term effect of the higher fiscal restrictions and, above all, will determine the economy’s medium- and long-term growth potential and productivity,” the bank said in its monthly bulletin.

Spanish People Take it to the Streets of Madrid

Citizens protesting against harsh austerity measures were met with violence from the police.

AFP | JULY 20, 2012

Spanish police fired rubber bullets and charged protestors in central Madrid early Friday at the end of a huge demonstration against economic crisis measures.

The protest was one of over 80 demonstrations called by unions across the county against civil servant pay cuts and tax hikes which drew tens of thousands of people, including police and firefighters wearing their helmets.

“Hands up, this is a robbery!” protesters bellowed as they marched through the streets of the Spanish capital.

At the end of the peaceful protest dozens of protestors lingered at the Puerta del Sol, a large square in the heart of Madrid where the demonstration wound up late on Thursday.

Some threw bottles at police and set up barriers made up of plastic bins and cardboard boxes in the middle of side streets leading to the square and set them on fire, sending plumes of thick smoke into the air.

Riot police then charged some of the protestors, striking them with batons when they tried to reach the heavily-guarded parliament building.

The approach of the riot police sent protestors running through the streets of the Spanish capital as tourists sitting on outdoor patios looked on.

A police official told AFP that officers arrested seven people while six people were injured.

The protests held Thursday were the latest and biggest in an almost daily series of demonstrations that erupted last week when Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced measures to save 65 billion euros ($80 billion) and slash the public deficit.

Among the steps is a cut to the Christmas bonus paid to civil servants, equivalent to a seven-percent reduction in annual pay. This came on top of a pay cut in 2010, which was followed by a salary freeze.

“There’s nothing we can do but take to the street. We have lost between 10 and 15 percent of our pay in the past four years,” said Sara Alvera, 51, a worker in the justice sector, demonstrating in Madrid.

“These measures won’t help end the crisis.”

Spain is struggling with its second recession in four years and an unemployment rate of more than 24 percent.

Under pressure from the European Union to stabilise Spain’s public finances, the conservative government also cut unemployment benefits and increased sales tax, with the upper limit rising from 18 to 21 percent.

As Rajoy’s conservative Popular Party passed the measures with its majority in parliament Thursday, Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro defended them, insisting they were needed to lower Spain’s borrowing costs.

“There is no money in the coffers to pay for public services. We are making reforms that will allow us to better finance ourselves,” he said.

Protestors angrily rejected this claim.

“There isn’t a shortage of money — there are too many thieves,” read one sign hoisted in the Madrid crowd.

Critics say the government’s new austerity measures will worsen economic conditions for ordinary people.

Cristina Blesa, a 55-year-old teacher, said she and her husband would struggle to pay their son’s university tuition fees because of the cuts and tax hikes.

“We’re earning less and less and at the same time the price of everything is going up,” she said at the Madrid protest.

“Now with the rise in VAT everything is going to be even more expensive. It’s more and more difficult at the end of the month.”

Spain is due this month to become the fourth eurozone country, after Greece, Ireland and Portugal, to get bailout funds in the current crisis, when it receives the first loan from a 100-billion-euro credit line for its banks.

Eurozone leaders were expected to finalise the deal in a telephone conference on Friday.

Spain had to offer investors sharply higher interest rates in a bond sale on Thursday, suggesting investors remain worried over the country’s ability to repay its debts.

Protestors complained that they were being made to pay for the financial crisis while banks and the rich were let off.

“We have to all come out into the street, firefighters, street-sweepers, nurses, to say: enough,” said Manuel Amaro, a 38-year-old fireman in Madrid holding his black helmet by his side.

“If we don’t, I don’t know where this is going to end.”

Related Links:

Togel178

Pedetogel

Sabatoto

Togel279

Togel158

Colok178

Novaslot88

Lain-Lain

Partner Links