Gross Errors In The IPCC Report On Global Tropical Cyclone Activity

by William M. Gray
October 31, 2011

“Intense TC activity has increased since about 1970.”  (NOT TRUE)

…“Globally, estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show a significant upward trend since the mid-1970s, with greater storm intensity. Such trends are strongly correlated with tropical SST.”  (NOT TRUE)

“These relationships have been reinforced by findings of a large increase in numbers and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 globally since 1970  (NOT TRUE)

…. The largest increase was in the North Pacific, Indian and southwest Pacific Oceans.”  (NOT TRUE)

The Four IPCC reports have emboldened our politicians to come forth with the following erroneous statements –
Al Gore states in his book and movie – An Inconvenient Truth – “major storms (hurricanes) spinning in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans since the 1970s have increased in duration and intensity by about 50 percent.”  (NOT TRUE)

In November 2008 President-Elect Barack Obama said, “storms (i.e. hurricanes) are growing stronger with each passing hurricane season.”


The US government has expended billions of dollars in recent years to promote the questionable idea that human-induced increases in atmospheric CO2 will cause dangerous changes to the global climate system. Massive government and media campaigns have been launched to promote the dangers of CO2-induced anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and related influences such as the anticipated increases in global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity as well as other severe weather events. Pro-AGW advocates have pushed to have this warming gospel accepted across the world and taught to our children in their regular school programs. AGW advocates want to worry the public as much as possible in order to be better able to increase their influence and funding support.
There has yet to be an open and honest scientific debate on the future consequences of CO2 increases and of the potential social and negative economic consequences of efforts to slow down CO2 increases. A number of pro-AGW advocates have expended considerable efforts in recent years to develop theories and in arranging TC data in order to show that global TCs are increasing in frequency and intensity in response to rising CO2 levels. Global warming advocates have had a strong desire to find and to exploit increases in TC activity as further evidence of the human-induced warming scenarios.

The IPCC hierarchy had its mind made up years ago that they would make every attempt possible to link rising levels of CO2 with increases in global hurricane intensity and frequency. They knew that if such an association could be established in the public’s mind that this could be used to help scare and induce the public (and Congress) into funding the political, economic, and environmental agendas of a large number of special interest groups. Input from skeptics or any hypothesis or data that did not link rises in CO2 to increases in TC activity was to be avoided, suppressed, or rejected. The IPCC deliberately ignored the most experienced and knowledgeable TC experts in order to preserve their desired goal of propagandizing the public to believe that rising CO2 levels were creating a growing hurricane threat. Most of the IPCC statements on TCs, as will be shown, are not supported by observations.

After the very severe US hurricane landfalling seasons of 2004 and 2005, the public was more open and vulnerable to such arguments of CO2 induced increases in hurricane activity. A group of papers were rapidly published to exploit and to justify this assumption so that the authors might be able to jump onto the warming bandwagon and increase their potential for more federal grant support, publicity, and other envisioned gains.

These papers strived to arrange their observations and physical explanations in ways to show or imply a direct association between increasing levels of TC activity with increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and rising levels of CO2. The majority of these authors who rapidly published papers between 2005-2008 had little background experience in TC research or forecasting, or in TC climatology. Nearly all of these papers were biased in the direction of implying more TC activity with rising levels of SST. Most of these papers should not have been able to get through the peer-review process. The journal editors of these papers appear to have sent them for review to known like-minded AGW sympathizers. Many of our country’s most experienced TC researchers and forecasters appear to have been left out of this review process.

Following these two disastrous US landfalling hurricane years of 2004-2005, the mainstream media (without a background knowledge of TCs and preconditioned to accept the AGW arguments) generally accepted the reality of these paper’s faulty results. This created a near panic among coastal residents over the implied coming increase of hurricane destruction that these papers indicated was on the way. Disaster stories made good press and fit in very well with the government and environmentalists’ AGW scenarios. The media, in general, chose not to discuss the views of established TC researchers and forecasters from the National Hurricane Center and many of my experienced TC colleagues who did not subscribe to such disaster scenarios.

I have been closely following the AGW debate for the last 25 years. It has been politically dominated from the start. All four IPCC reports have been slanted to support the AGW hypothesis. There has been much valuable data and analysis contained in these four reports that have been issued, but the report’s summaries have always been biased toward the organizers desired goal of saying to government policy makers that CO2 was causing increases in both global temperature, TC activity, severe weather events, etc.

I believe that rising levels of CO2 will manifest itself through a small enhancement of the global hydrologic cycle (by a few percent) but that we will see very little increase of global temperature when CO2 amounts double towards the end of the 21st century. The General Circulation Models (GCMs) on which predictions of 2-5oC (4-9oF) global warming for a doubling of CO2 are based have basic flaws and they should not be accepted. The four IPCC reports which have been issued over the last 16 years have done much harm in needlessly alarming the world over the dangers of rising levels of CO2 that are not realistic. The IPCC process has made it impossible to separate the overwhelming political nature of this effort from the desired unbiased scientific analysis.

This paper documents many of the false statements on tropical cyclones which were contained in the IPCC-AR4 and gives scientific arguments why rising levels of CO2 should have little or no significant influence on TC activity and only marginally so on global warming.


This section briefly discusses:
a. Last 20-year downward trend in global TC activity.
b. CO2’s extremely small relative energy influence.
c. Lack of SST vs. TC activity correlation.
d. Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) influence on Atlantic SST variations.


Although global surface temperatures appear to have increased during the 20th century by about 0.65°C or 1°F, there is no reliable data to indicate that increases in TC frequency or intensity changes occurred in any of the globe’s TC basins. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)1 shows significant year-to-year and decadal variability over the past 40 years (when global TC data is deemed reasonably reliable) but no period-long increasing trend. In fact, global TC activity has shown (red line) a distinct decrease over the last 20 years when CO2 amounts were increasing (Figure 2.1). Similarly, Klotzbach (2006) found no significant change in global TC activity during the period from 1986-2005 when tropical SSTs and CO2 amounts were rising (Figure 2.2). See section 13 for more discussion.


The energy change that will be brought about by rising levels of CO2 have been and will be for many decades far too small to cause a detectable influence on TCs. Figure 2.3 shows a vertical cross-section of the annual energy budget for the tropics (30oN-30oS; 0-360o). Note how large the surface, troposphere, and top of the atmosphere energy flux components are in comparison with the reduced infrared (IR) flux to space of 3.7 Wm-2 for a doubling of CO2 that is expected to occur by the end of the 21st century. We are now about one-third of the way (~ 1.4 Wm-2) to a doubling of CO2 from the background state of the mid-19th century. Any potential CO2 influence on TCs will be too miniscule to be isolated, and we do not know if once an influence is ever able to be detected whether it will have a positive or a negative effect on TC intensity and/or frequency.


These two parameters are only slightly related in all global TC basins besides the Atlantic (Figure 2.4). Long-period SST increases should not be expected to bring about significant global lapse-rate buoyancy increases or enhanced deep cumulonimbus (Cb) convection. If global surface temperature and surface moisture changes on a climate time scale do occur, so too will upper-level temperature and moisture conditions change in a way so as to maintain global rainfall and energy budgets near their long-period average. With global warming or cooling of but a degree or so it is to be expected that average global lapse-rates and TC activity will not appreciably change.

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Biosfera Utiliza 45% a mais CO2 por Ano do que o Estimado

Estes números fazem outro dente grande na teoria amplamente desacreditado que o homem é responsável pelo aquecimento global, como as estimativas anteriores indicavam que a biosfera só consumia 120 bilhões de toneladas de CO2.

Por Luis R. Miranda
The Real Agenda
Setembro 29, 2011

A habilidade das florestas, plantas e solo para usar o dióxido de carbono (CO2) do ar tem sido subestimada de acordo com um estudo publicado quarta-feira na revista Nature. Este fato desafia cálculos anteriores utilizados para estimar a gravidade do problema causado por gases causadores do efeito estufa.

A Floresta Tropical na Costa Rica -- A capacidade das florestas, plantas e o solo para usar o dióxido de carbono (CO2) do ar tem sido subestimada.

Como o mar, a terra é um deposito de carbono, ou uma esponja, que ajuda a absorver o CO2 emitido pela queima de combustíveis fósseis.

A estimativa global utilizada até agora para prever crises potenciais no futuro -especialmente por alarmistas da mudança climática como Al Gore e Christiana Figueres-  é que o solo e a vegetação utilizam 120 milhões de toneladas ou gigatoneladas de carbono a cada ano através do processo natural da fotossíntese.

O novo estudo, publicado na revista Nature, diz que a absorção pode ser entre 25 e 45 por cento maior, ou seja, entre 150-175 gigatoneladas por ano.

Mas muito pouco desse carbono adicional é susceptível de ser armazenado permanentemente no solo, dizem os pesquisadores. Em vez disso, é provável que re-entre na atmosfera pela respiração das plantas na forma de oxigênio, que é o que as plantas emitem como resultado da fotossíntese.

Esta é uma decepção para quem procura uma boa notícia na luta contra as alterações climáticas e o aquecimento global antropogênico.

Quanto mais carbono é seqüestrado no solo e plantas, menos carbono entra na atmosfera, o que ajuda a liberar mais do calor do sol.

A pesquisadora-chefe, Lisa Welp, da Scripps Institution of Oceanography da Universidade da Califórnia San Diego, disse que determinar a captação de carbono anual da biosfera terrestre foi um dos maiores problemas na equação das emissões.

Cientistas estavam confiantes sobre suas estimativas no relacionado ao dióxico de carbono existente na biosfera e é improvável que eles queiram mudar suas estimativas após a novas descobertas, disse ela.

“Mais CO2 é utilizado pelas plantas do que se pensava, mas na verdade este CO2 não fica muito tempo em plantas e no solo”, disse ela em um e-mail enviado a agencia de noticias AFP.

“O excesso de CO2 utilizado na fotossíntese é mais provável que volte para a atmosfera através da respiração.”

A pesquisa analisou os isótopos, ou variações no componente de oxigênio do CO2, usando um banco de dados com amostras da atmosfera com mais de três décadas de informação acumulada.

Estes isótopos são marcadores químicos que indicam o tipo de água com que a molécula tem estado em contacto.

Os pesquisadores analisaram os isótopos cujas concentrações estão associadas com chuvas.

Eles foram surpreendidos pela associação clara entre estes isótopos e El Niño, o fenômeno meteorológico que ocorre frequentemente.

A implicação disso é que o CO2 é rapidamente utilizado pelos ecossistemas terrestres, sugerem os pesquisadores. A partir deste pressuposto vem a estimativa de uma muito maior absorção de dióxido de carbono a cada ano.

Os cientistas não explicam se esta “nova” forma de reciclar o CO2 da atmosfera é uma resposta da biosfera à abundância de CO2, que no passado significava uma biosfera mais rica em vegetação e, como resultado, mais rica em alimentos para os seres que nela habitavam, incluindo os seres humanos.

Majority of Human Race Does Not See Global Warming as Serious Threat
April 26, 2011

Most of the human race does not see global warming as a serious threat, according to a Gallup poll released last week that surveyed individuals in 111 countries.

Respondents were asked: “How serious of a threat is global warming to you and your family?” They were given the options of answering: not at all serious, not very serious, somewhat serious or very serious.

Worldwide, only 42 percent told Gallup they believed global warming was either a “somewhat serious” or “very serious” threat. Gallup did not publish the separate percentages for each answer.

In the United States, 53 percent said they believed global warming was a “somewhat serious” or “very serious” threat to themselves and their families. That was down from 63 percent in polling that Gallup did on the question in the United States in 2007 and 2008.

Of the 111 countries that Gallup polled, Greece ranked as No.1 for popular fear of global warming. In that southern European country 87 percent said global warming was a “somewhat serious” or “very serious” threat.

That was a far higher percentage than across the Mediterranean in Egypt, a desert nation, where only 18 percent said they believed global warming was a somewhat serious or very serious threat.

Somaliland ranked dead last—with only 10 percent of local residents saying global warming was a somewhat serious or very serious threat.

Yemen ranked second to last with 13 percent.

China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, ranked 105th out of 111 among the countries polled by Gallup. Only 21 percent of Chinese said they believed global warming is a somewhat serious or very serious threat to themselves or their families.

EU to ban cars from cities by 2050

Cars will be banned from London and all other cities across Europe under a draconian EU master plan to cut CO2 emissions by 60 per cent over the next 40 years.

March 28, 2011

The European Commission on Monday unveiled a “single European transport area” aimed at enforcing “a profound shift in transport patterns for passengers” by 2050.

The plan also envisages an end to cheap holiday flights from Britain to southern Europe with a target that over 50 per cent of all journeys above 186 miles should be by rail.

Top of the EU’s list to cut climate change emissions is a target of “zero” for the number of petrol and diesel-driven cars and lorries in the EU’s future cities.

Siim Kallas, the EU transport commission, insisted that Brussels directives and new taxation of fuel would be used to force people out of their cars and onto “alternative” means of transport.

“That means no more conventionally fuelled cars in our city centres,” he said. “Action will follow, legislation, real action to change behaviour.”

The Association of British Drivers rejected the proposal to ban cars as economically disastrous and as a “crazy” restriction on mobility.

“I suggest that he goes and finds himself a space in the local mental asylum,” said Hugh Bladon, a spokesman for the BDA.

“If he wants to bring everywhere to a grinding halt and to plunge us into a new dark age, he is on the right track. We have to keep things moving. The man is off his rocker.”

Mr Kallas has denied that the EU plan to cut car use by half over the next 20 years, before a total ban in 2050, will limit personal mobility or reduce Europe’s economic competitiveness.

“Curbing mobility is not an option, neither is business as usual. We can break the transport system’s dependence on oil without sacrificing its efficiency and compromising mobility. It can be win-win,” he claimed.

Christopher Monckton, Ukip’s transport spokesman said: “The EU must be living in an alternate reality, where they can spend trillions and ban people from their cars.

“This sort of greenwashing grandstanding adds nothing and merely highlights their grandiose ambitions.”

Albedo and OLR Radiation with Variations of Precipitation – Implications for AGW

By William M. Gray & Barry Schwartz
March 3, 2011


Global warming scenarios from CO2 increases are envisioned to bring about rainfall enhancement and resulting upper troposphere temperature and water vapor increases. The initial warming resulting from the blockage of infrared (IR or OLR) radiation due to CO2’s increases has been programmed in climate models to develop yet additional rainfall, temperature, and water vapor increases. This causes an additional blockage of IR energy to space which is substantially larger than the original CO2 blockage of IR by itself. This additional longwave IR blockage of energy to space (a positive feedback mechanism) is simulated in the models to be twice or more as strong as the original IR blockage from CO2 alone. We question the reality of this positive feedback mechanism. This study is directed towards determining the reality of such large positive feedback processes. This is a crucial question for determining the likely amount of global warming that will result from the anticipated doubling of CO2 by the end of the 21st century.

We have analyzed a wide variety of albedo and IR differences which are associated with rainfall variations on many different space and time scales. Our goal is to determine the extent to which we are able to accept or reject the reality of the Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations. The following analysis indicates that the GCM simulation of the influence of a doubling of CO2 give far too much global warming. We anticipate that a doubling of CO2 will act in a way to cause the global hydrologic cycle to increase in strength by approximately 3-4 percent. Our analysis indicates that there will be very little global temperature increase (~0.3oC) for a doubling of CO2, certainly not the 2-5oC projected by the GCMs.


We have analyzed 21 years (1984-2004) of ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) outgoing solar (albedo) and IR (OLR) on various distance (from local to global) and time scales (from daily to decadal). We have investigated how radiation measurements change with variations in precipitation as determined from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data on a wide variety of space and time scales (Figure 1). We have stratified our radiation and rainfall data into three latitudinal sections and six longitudinal areas (Figure 2). We analyzed IR and albedo changes which were related to reanalysis-determined rainfall variations by month (January to December) and by yearly periods for the tropics (30oN-30oS; 0-360o) and for the globe, defined as 70oN-70oS; 0-360o for this study.

For each month and region we have categorized our 21 years of ISCCP radiation data into the 10 highest average monthly rainfall values and subtracted the 10 lowest average monthly rainfall values. We analyzed IR and albedo differences between these 10 highest versus 10 lowest precipitation months. These monthly rainfall differences were typically between 4-7 percent of the total rainfall. For the 10 highest minus 10 lowest yearly rainfall differences within the tropics (30oN-30oS; 0-360o) and for most of the globe (70oN-70oS; 0-360o), rainfall differences varied between 2-3 percent.
A second rainfall stratification involved comparing the rainfall and associated IR and albedo differences for variations in rainfall for the years of 1995-2004 versus the years of 1984-1994. The latter 10 years had approximately two percent more tropical and global rainfall than the earlier period. The individual monthly differences for the earlier and latter period were in the range of 3-4 percent of the mean rainfall values.

The third rainfall stratification involved daily mean rainfall and its association with IR and albedo at many individual stations. We also analyzed 3-hourly radiation information associated with daily average rainfall differences. Our individual 3-hour albedo analysis showed that albedos can be as high as 800-1000 Wm-2 over heavy rain and cloud regions near mid-day.


a)  The albedo occurring over the top of strong precipitation and high cloud regions typically increases at a greater rate than does the usual decrease of IR within these same rain and cloud areas. Heavy rain and cloud areas are local places of strong enhanced net radiation to space (Figure 3 – left diagram). In almost all organized rain and cloud areas we find that albedo to space goes up in both magnitude (Wm-2) and in percentage more than the expected simultaneous magnitude and percentage reduction of IR flux to space.

In the adjacent subsidence areas of little or no cloudiness and rain there is typically a reduction of albedo that is one to two times greater than the enhancement of IR to space (right side of Figure 3). In scattered and broken cloud areas of little or no significant rain there is typically a close balance between the enhancement of IR to space and the reduction of albedo.

b)  IR and albedo usually change in opposite directions. They have a high negative correlation. There are places and times however, where IR and albedo change together to either enhance or to suppress outward radiation flux.

c)  The typical enhancement of rainfall and updraft motion in the cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds within heavy raining meso-scale disturbance areas acts to increase the return flow subsidence in the surrounding broader clear and partly cloudy regions (Figure 4). Global rainfall increases typically cause an overall reduction of specific humidity (q) and relative humidity (RH) in the upper and middle tropospheric levels of the broader scale surrounding subsidence regions. This leads to a net enhancement of IR to space, both over the tropics and the globe. Albedo is typically decreased as much or more than IR is increased in the broadscale clear and partly cloudy areas. But over the rainy and cloudy areas, the albedo is greatly enhanced. The albedo enhancement over the cloud-rain areas tends to increase the net (IR + albedo) energy to space more than the weak suppression of (IR + albedo) in the clear and partly cloudy areas.

d)  We observe that upper level RH and moisture content (q) at 300 mb (~10 km) and 400 mb (~8 km – not shown) are typically reduced for increasing amounts of net tropical rainfall. This is a direct consequence of the slightly greater return flow mass subsidence coming from the smaller areas of strong and concentrated updrafts of the deep cumulonimbus (Cb) rainclouds. This lowering of upper-level water vapor over the broad subsidence areas slightly increases the optical depth (τ) and slightly lowers the radiation emission level to a warmer layer where more IR energy is able to be radiated to space.

The NCEP reanalysis data shows that there has been a steady decrease in upper tropospheric RH over the last 40 years (Figure 6). ISCCP data for the tropics show a small decrease in precipitable water (PW) since the mid 1980s (Figure 7). We do not find that net tropospheric water vapor content is necessarily related to rainfall rate. Increases in tropical and/or global rainfall typically lead to decreases in upper tropospheric water vapor content. This is in contrast with the general assumption of most climate scientists who believe that as global rainfall increases that tropospheric water vapor content will have to rise. This thinking fails to take into account the nature of the small-scale cumulus convective units. With the proper convective cloud model it is quite plausible that upper tropospheric moisture undergoes a decrease as tropical and/or global rainfall rates go upward. A long observational paper is presently being prepared to more fully document our many observations of the association of changes of rainfall with albedo and IR.


The above measurements are at odds with the GCM simulations of precipitation increase associated with rising CO2 amounts. Most GCMs show large upper tropospheric tropical temperature and water vapor increases to be associated with increased rates of precipitation. We do not observe such upper tropospheric temperature and moisture gains with rainfall enhancement. The GCM simulations assume that CO2’s blockage of IR stimulates an enhancement of extra rainfall which causes yet larger increases in upper level temperature-moisture and consequently causes stronger reductions in IR energy to space. These assumptions require the models to impose an increase in water vapor (to keep RH constant) as upper level temperature gains occur. We do not observe such upper-level temperature and moisture rises. We do not find that upper tropospheric temperature and RH are necessarily related to each other as the GCMs typically assume. We also do not find that upper and lower tropospheric water vapor amounts are strongly correlated with one another as the GCMs do.

It is possible for the troposphere to gain energy from increases in CO2 and to simultaneously enhance its radiation to space to largely balance out all or most of the CO2 energy gains. Such a compensation will allow CO2 to increase with very little or no gain in tropospheric temperature. Such energy compensation can occur by CO2 increases causing a lowering of the radiation emission level to a warmer temperature and thereby increasing the outward IR (σT4) flux to space. The energy compensation can also occur by assuming that the CO2-induced extra cloudiness-rainfall causes a compensating rise in albedo. Or, the CO2-induced blockage could be compensated for (as the GCMs have chosen to do) by having upper tropospheric temperature rise by amounts of 3-4oC or more. Our observations suggest that such an upper-level warming and consequent moistening process due to rising levels of CO2 does not occur.

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